See how your application strategy plays out across all 192 colleges — with deeper simulations tuned to your profile.
Based on 500 Monte Carlo simulations using an agent-based model with real Common Data Set statistics (Class of 2029). Each run simulates ~400 students competing for seats at 55 colleges across 6 admission rounds. Strategy stats post-process the same runs, counting only acceptances from your chosen 12.
College Monte Carlo estimates your probability of admission at each US college by comparing your academic profile against that college's real admissions data, then running a Monte Carlo simulation — the same technique used in finance and physics to model uncertain outcomes. Rather than a single yes/no guess, it simulates your application against a representative applicant pool hundreds of times and reports the share of runs in which you are admitted.
The model is built on each college's most recent Common Data Set — the standardized admissions statistics colleges publish each year. Your unweighted GPA and SAT/ACT scores are placed within the college's published middle-50% ranges, and the logistic admission model then weighs the factors colleges say matter (CDS section C7): rigor of coursework, test scores, GPA, essays, recommendations, and extracurriculars. It also adjusts for application round (early decision and early action typically carry higher admit rates than regular decision) and for hooks such as legacy, recruited-athlete, and first-generation status.
The result is a realistic percentage for each college, grouped into likely, target, and reach schools so you can build a balanced application list. The tool is free and runs entirely in your browser.
For a student with a 3.8 unweighted GPA and a 1450 SAT, the model produces estimates such as these (illustrative, regular-decision, no hooks):
| College | Overall acceptance rate | SAT middle 50% | Estimated chance (3.8 GPA, 1450 SAT) | Category |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard University | 3.6% | 1510–1580 | ~2% | Reach |
| University of Michigan | ~18% | 1350–1530 | ~35% | Target |
| University of Alabama | 71.2% | 1110–1360 | ~92% | Likely |
Estimates are illustrative and depend on the full profile; enter your own numbers above to run the live simulation. Acceptance rates and score ranges are from each college's most recent Common Data Set.
Compare your unweighted GPA and SAT to each college's Common Data Set middle-50% ranges, then adjust for its overall acceptance rate, your application round, and hooks such as legacy or first-generation status. This calculator automates that process, running a Monte Carlo simulation over real CDS data — our step-by-step guide to estimating your admission chances walks through the manual version.
It is a probability estimate, not a guarantee. The percentages are calibrated against published Common Data Set acceptance rates and score ranges, so they reflect real historical outcomes for applicants with similar profiles. Essays, recommendations, and institutional priorities still shape decisions, so treat the number as a planning tool — our methodology page explains how the model is built and calibrated.
It depends on the college. At the most selective schools, the middle 50% of enrolled students score roughly 1500–1580 — Harvard reports 1510–1580 and MIT 1520–1570 — while selective publics such as the University of Virginia (1410–1520) and Georgia Tech (1370–1530) admit wider ranges. Scoring at or above a college's 75th-percentile number makes your testing a clear strength.
Usually, yes. At colleges with binding early decision in our dataset, the median early-round acceptance rate is about 2.7 times the regular decision rate — Duke admitted 12.8% of early decision applicants versus 3.5% in regular decision, and Vanderbilt 13.2% versus 3.3%. Part of the gap reflects stronger early pools, and ED is binding, so weigh the tradeoffs in our guide to early decision vs regular decision.